1:45PM ET Update

This is a tropical update for the All-Hazards Consortium's Sensitive Information Sharing Environment (SISE).

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for gradual development by the middle
to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as
the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves
near the Leeward Islands late this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.