HOW TO RIG ELECTIONS:
Moving to Dev-ocracy

On October 16, 2024, Patrick O. Okigbo III, Founding Partner of Nextier, hosted Development Discourse, the firm’s public policy discussion platform, with Dr. Nic Cheeseman, Professor of Democracy at the University of Birmingham and Founding Director of the Centre for Elections, Democracy, Accountability, and Representation (CEDAR). The discussion centred on Dr. Cheeseman's book, How to Rig an Election, co-authored with Brian Klaas.

The discussion explored the state of democracy in Africa. Dr Cheeseman argued that Africans still value democracy despite its flaws. Afrobarometer data shows that 66% of Africans say they prefer democracy to any other system of government, and a large majority rejects one-person rule (80%), one-party rule (78%), and military rule (66%).

Cheeseman explained that many democracies outperform authoritarian regimes in economic growth and public service delivery. Evidence from the V-Dem Institute validates this point. They show that democracies have more stable and predictable economic growth. On the other hand, autocracies display much higher but also much lower growth rates. Hence, democracies are less likely to experience economic crises than autocracies. Indeed, democratisation in low-capacity states does not affect economic development negatively.

These arguments are difficult to explain to those living in “counterfeit democracies” that have failed to lift the quality of life of their people. Indeed, authoritarian states like China and Rwanda are becoming attractive models for Africans. Thus, Okigbo and Cheeseman explored the models and why they cannot be replicated across Africa. According to Dr Cheeseman, Rwanda's success is an exception. Many authoritarian regimes do not record success in economic and social progress. Furthermore, attempting to duplicate Rwanda's autocratic model would likely require high levels of repression and could ignite civil conflict. He further pointed out the risks of leaders remaining in power for extended periods: They tend to become corrupt and less responsive to citizens.

Dr Cheeseman also discussed how politicians rig elections. He noted that seasoned politicians avoid rigging elections on election day. Instead, they manipulate outcomes long before voting occurs. The book outlined common strategies, including gerrymandering, violence and intimidation, vote buying, stuffing ballot boxes, neutralising institutions, fake news and the digital frontier, and playing the international systems (or fooling the West). Corrupt politicians understand that it is best to use methods that make elections appear legitimate, leading to international observers accepting the results. Cheeseman outlined that vote buying requires that the politician be, at least, marginally popular and acceptable to the people. Okigbo noted that adept politicians have transitioned from crude vote buying to buying the judiciary and other election institutions.

The conversation also touched on the role of social movements and citizen action. Okigbo expressed concern that African countries remain dominated by elite groups that retain power even with sham, regular elections. He warned that the absence of genuine accountability might drive citizens to embrace more radical alternatives, including a return to military rule. Cheeseman acknowledged these concerns, particularly in Nigeria, where systemic challenges have persisted for a long time. He stressed that meaningful change must be driven internally, as external actors often lack the influence or moral authority to support democratic progress in the continent effectively.

The discussion highlighted the critical role of the youth in shaping Africa's political future. According to them, young people can employ their frustration to drive change, as seen in recent protests in Kenya and Nigeria. They noted the role of technology, particularly social media, as a powerful tool for organising and exposing electoral fraud and holding leaders accountable. Cheeseman, however, acknowledged the difficulty of advancing democracy in countries with low literacy rates and high inequality. He stressed the need to strengthen education systems and ensure democratic processes are accessible to all citizens.

Nextier, a multi-competency advisory firm, uses its Development Discourse series to probe for answers to complex development questions.